Global financial market contagion beyond the UK has not been particularly severe since the vote, although European bank shares have fallen sharply as concerns about profitability have risen. Liquidity provision and monetary policy adjustments by global central banks should be able to contain the risk of a significant and widespread tightening in global credit conditions, although a further strengthening of the dollar with implications for emerging market currencies and debt service cannot be ruled out. Further Fed tightening is now likely to be delayed until December 2016 and the ECB is expected to persist with asset purchases beyond March 2017.
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